November Sees Deceleration in Upward Trend of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) has unveiled the latest findings for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, which serve as the primary gauge of U.S. housing prices. Data from November 2023 indicates that out of the 20 major metropolitan areas surveyed, 12 experienced declines in home prices compared to the previous month. This comprehensive dataset, spanning over 27 years, is accessible in its entirety at www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR TRENDS

In November, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, encompassing all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.1% annual increase, up from the previous month’s 4.7% rise. The 10-City Composite saw a rise of 6.2%, compared to a 5.7% increase in the prior month, while the 20-City Composite recorded a 5.4% year-over-year increase, up from the previous month’s 4.9%. Detroit maintained its lead among the 20 cities with an 8.2% increase, followed by San Diego with 8%. Portland, for the third consecutive month, experienced a 0.7% decline, remaining the sole city with lower prices compared to a year ago.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH MOVEMENTS

November marked the first instance since January 2023 where both the U.S. National Index and the 20-City Composite posted 0.2% month-over-month decreases, while the 10-City Composite recorded a 0.1% decrease. Following seasonal adjustments, the U.S. National Index and the 10-City Composite saw month-over-month increases of 0.2%, whereas the 20-City Composite recorded a 0.1% rise.

ANALYSIS

Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P DJI, commented on the November data, noting a slight downturn from the peak reached earlier in the year. Notably, Seattle and San Francisco reported the largest monthly declines, each dropping by 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively.

Luke highlighted November’s year-over-year growth as the most substantial in 2023, with the National Composite rising by 5.1% and the 10-city index by 6.2%. Detroit continued its streak as the top-performing market for the third consecutive month, with an 8.2% gain, while San Diego maintained the second spot with an 8% annual increase. He suggested that these cities could contend for the title of “housing market of the year” based on their performance.

Six cities reached new all-time highs in November (Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, New York, and Cleveland), while Portland remained the only market experiencing an annual decline. The Northeast and Midwest regions saw the most significant gains, with returns of 6.4% and 6.3%, respectively, while the West reported slower growth at 3%. This month’s report indicated the narrowest performance spread across the nation since Q1 2021.

Luke concluded by noting a more uniform upward trend across the country, with fewer instances of micro-markets deviating from the overall trend. He attributed the decline in house prices to peaking mortgage rates, which reached nearly 8% for the average Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, according to Federal Reserve data. However, with rates subsequently falling by over 1%, Luke suggested this could support further annual gains in home prices.

The article also includes detailed tables summarizing the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs, as well as a breakdown of the monthly changes in both seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data for various metropolitan areas.

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