– S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the February 2024 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices shows that 18 out of the 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price increases. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.4% annual gain for February, up from a 6.0% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 8.0%, up from a 7.4% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 7.3%, up from a 6.6% increase in the previous month. San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 11.4% increase in February, followed by Chicago and Detroit, with increases of 8.9%. Portland, while still holding the lowest rank after reporting two consecutive months of the smallest year-over-year growth, had a significant annual increase of 2.2% in February.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite all rose for the first time since October 2023, showing pre-seasonality adjustment increases of 0.6%, 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, while the 20-City and the 10-City Composite both reported month-over-month increases of 0.6%.
ANALYSIS
“Following last year’s decline, U.S. home prices are at or near all-time highs,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Our National Composite rose by 6.4% in February, the fastest annual rate since November 2022. Our 10- and 20-City Composite indices are currently at all-time highs. For the third consecutive month, all cities reported increases in annual prices, with four currently at all-time highs: San Diego, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., and New York. On a seasonal adjusted basis, our National, 10- and 20- City Composite indices continue to break through previous all-time highs set last year.”
“Since the previous peak in prices in 2022, this marks the second time home prices have pushed higher in the face of economic uncertainty. The first decline followed the start of the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle. The second decline followed the peak in average mortgage rates last October. Enthusiasm for potential Fed cuts and lower mortgage rates appears to have supported buyer behavior, driving the 10- and 20- City Composites to new highs.”
“The Northeast region, which includes Boston, New York, and Washington, D.C., ranks as the best performing market for over the last half year. As remote work benefitted smaller (and sunnier markets) in the first part of the decade, return to office may be contributing to outperformance in larger metropolitan markets in the Northeast,” according to Luke.
“San Diego has been the best performing market following the trough in home prices observed in early 2023. With Los Angeles rising for 13 consecutive months to record another new high, Southern California has outperformed its surrounding neighbors. San Francisco has dropped 12% since its peak, while Phoenix and Las Vegas have dropped 6% and 4.5%, respectively.”
“With all markets increasing on an annual basis, similar performance was observed in the monthly return data. Eighteen markets experienced uplift in February. Tampa experienced a decline of 0.3% while Seattle has the largest monthly gain of 2.3%.”
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||||
| Index | Level | Date | Level | Date | From Peak (%) | Level | From Trough (%) | From Peak (%) | |
| National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4 % | 312.18 | 133.0 % | 69.1 % | |
| 20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1 % | 319.95 | 138.6 % | 54.9 % | |
| 10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3 % | 336.00 | 129.4 % | 48.5 % | |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for February 2024. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
| February 2024 | February/ January | January 24/December 23 | 1-Year | |||||||
| Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) | ||||||
| Atlanta | 241.43 | 0.4 % | -0.2 % | 6.4 % | ||||||
| Boston | 321.90 | 1.0 % | -0.5 % | 8.0 % | ||||||
| Charlotte | 270.97 | 0.2 % | -0.1 % | 8.2 % | ||||||
| Chicago | 198.16 | 1.1 % | -0.5 % | 8.9 % | ||||||
| Cleveland | 181.07 | 0.0 % | -1.0 % | 7.0 % | ||||||
| Dallas | 291.54 | 0.6 % | -0.2 % | 3.5 % | ||||||
| Denver | 311.47 | 0.9 % | -0.5 % | 2.7 % | ||||||
| Detroit | 179.90 | 0.5 % | -0.7 % | 8.9 % | ||||||
| Las Vegas | 286.54 | 0.6 % | -0.1 % | 7.3 % | ||||||
| Los Angeles | 426.26 | 1.1 % | 0.1 % | 8.7 % | ||||||
| Miami | 429.16 | 0.1 % | -0.1 % | 8.0 % | ||||||
| Minneapolis | 232.20 | 0.7 % | -0.6 % | 3.9 % | ||||||
| New York | 295.41 | 0.8 % | -0.3 % | 8.7 % | ||||||
| Phoenix | 322.82 | 0.5 % | -0.5 % | 4.9 % | ||||||
| Portland | 318.95 | 1.2 % | -0.2 % | 2.2 % | ||||||
| San Diego | 428.26 | 1.7 % | 1.9 % | 11.4 % | ||||||
| San Francisco | 346.43 | 1.7 % | -0.2 % | 5.2 % | ||||||
| Seattle | 370.26 | 2.3 % | 0.0 % | 7.1 % | ||||||
| Tampa | 380.02 | -0.3 % | -0.2 % | 4.3 % | ||||||
| Washington | 317.46 | 1.1 % | 0.5 % | 7.1 % | ||||||
| Composite-10 | 336.00 | 1.0 % | 0.0 % | 8.0 % | ||||||
| Composite-20 | 319.95 | 0.9 % | -0.1 % | 7.3 % | ||||||
| U.S. National | 312.18 | 0.6 % | -0.1 % | 6.4 % | ||||||
| Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic | ||||||||||
| Data through February 2024 | ||||||||||
Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
| February/January Change (%) | January 24/December 23 Change (%) | ||||||
| Metropolitan Area | NSA | SA | NSA | SA | |||
| Atlanta | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | -0.2 % | 0.2 % | |||
| Boston | 1.0 % | 0.8 % | -0.5 % | 0.1 % | |||
| Charlotte | 0.2 % | 0.4 % | -0.1 % | 0.5 % | |||
| Chicago | 1.1 % | 1.1 % | -0.5 % | 0.2 % | |||
| Cleveland | 0.0 % | 0.3 % | -1.0 % | -0.1 % | |||
| Dallas | 0.6 % | 0.2 % | -0.2 % | 0.3 % | |||
| Denver | 0.9 % | 0.2 % | -0.5 % | -0.5 % | |||
| Detroit | 0.5 % | 0.2 % | -0.7 % | 0.0 % | |||
| Las Vegas | 0.6 % | 0.7 % | -0.1 % | 0.5 % | |||
| Los Angeles | 1.1 % | 0.5 % | 0.1 % | 0.2 % | |||
| Miami | 0.1 % | 0.6 % | -0.1 % | -0.1 % | |||
| Minneapolis | 0.7 % | 0.6 % | -0.6 % | 0.1 % | |||
| New York | 0.8 % | 1.0 % | -0.3 % | 0.0 % | |||
| Phoenix | 0.5 % | 0.3 % | -0.5 % | 0.0 % | |||
| Portland | 1.2 % | 0.8 % | -0.2 % | -0.1 % | |||
| San Diego | 1.7 % | 0.3 % | 1.9 % | 1.8 % | |||
| San Francisco | 1.7 % | 0.2 % | -0.2 % | 0.2 % | |||
| Seattle | 2.3 % | 1.1 % | 0.0 % | -0.1 % | |||
| Tampa | -0.3 % | -0.3 % | -0.2 % | 0.3 % | |||
| Washington | 1.1 % | 0.8 % | 0.5 % | 0.9 % | |||
| Composite-10 | 1.0 % | 0.6 % | 0.0 % | 0.2 % | |||
| Composite-20 | 0.9 % | 0.6 % | -0.1 % | 0.2 % | |||
| U.S. National | 0.6 % | 0.4 % | -0.1 % | 0.3 % | |||
| Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic | |||||||
| Data through February 2024 | |||||||
