Annual Gain of 3.8% Recorded in S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index for November 2024
S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) has released the results for November 2024 from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading gauge of U.S. home prices. The data reveals a 3.8% year-over-year gain for November, representing a slight increase from the 3.6% gain seen in the previous month. This marks a continuing upward trend in the U.S. housing market as it wraps up 2024. The indices cover over 27 years of data and provide a comprehensive picture of national home price changes across various U.S. cities.
Year-over-Year Performance
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, which tracks home prices across all nine U.S. census divisions, posted a 3.8% annual return for November. This represents an increase from the 3.6% gain recorded in October 2024. Meanwhile, the 10-City Composite saw a 4.9% increase, holding steady from the previous month’s growth. The 20-City Composite, which includes larger metro areas, posted a 4.3% year-over-year increase, a slight increase from the 4.2% growth observed in October.
Within the 20-City Composite, New York led the pack with the highest annual increase of 7.3% in November. This was followed by Chicago and Washington, D.C., which saw annual increases of 6.2% and 5.9%, respectively. Tampa, on the other hand, was the only city to experience a year-over-year decline, falling by 0.4%. This marks the first annual drop for any market in over a year, highlighting Tampa’s struggle in the current market.
Month-over-Month Performance
Month-over-month, the trends in home prices continued to reflect a broader slowdown after the seasonal highs of the summer months. The U.S. National, 20-City, and 10-City Composite Indices all showed slight declines when adjusted for seasonal variations. The U.S. National Index dropped by 0.1%, while both the 20-City and 10-City Composites saw declines of 0.1% as well.
However, when the data was seasonally adjusted, all three indices showed positive results. The U.S. National, 20-City, and 10-City Composite Indices saw a month-over-month increase of 0.4%. This suggests that, despite some volatility in the market, home prices are stabilizing and showing modest growth when accounting for seasonal patterns.
Regional Trends and Market Insights
Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Global, noted that while some areas are showing above-average performance, national home prices are still generally below historical growth rates. Markets in New York, Washington, D.C., and Chicago are performing well above norms, with New York leading the pack. The Northeast region, in particular, experienced a strong 6.1% annual gain, which was the fastest-growing region in the country.
In contrast, the western U.S. and Florida, once considered red-hot housing markets, are now experiencing below-average growth. Tampa, in particular, stands out, as it recorded the first annual decline in over a year. The overall trend for the Southern region, including Florida, has seen home price returns rank in the bottom quartile of historical annual gains, dating back to 1988.
Despite the below-trend growth in many markets, Luke highlighted that the U.S. National Index reached its 18th consecutive all-time high, when adjusted for seasonality. This suggests continued strength in the housing market overall, albeit with regional variations. New York, in particular, has been leading the country for seven consecutive months, showing solid growth in the final quarter of 2024.
Supporting Data and Historical Context
The report includes tables detailing the peaks and troughs of the housing market, comparing current levels to historical data from the 2006 peak and the 2012 trough. From the 2006 peak, the U.S. National Index is still 27.4% lower, but it has increased by 141.7% from the 2012 trough. Similar increases are observed in the 20-City and 10-City indices, with the 20-City Composite up 148.1% from the 2012 low but still 35.1% below the 2006 peak.
Metro Area Data for November 2024
Table 2 of the report outlines the performance of specific metro areas in November 2024. Notable changes include:
- Atlanta: A 2.9% increase year-over-year, though it saw a slight decline of 0.3% month-over-month.
- Boston: Continued strong performance with a 5.1% annual increase and a 0.4% monthly rise.
- Chicago: Saw a significant 6.2% annual increase but a slight month-over-month decline of 0.3%.
- San Francisco: Experienced a modest 1.9% annual gain, with a sharper decline of 0.8% month-over-month.
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